Analysis & Outlook
“By combining hydrocarbon and electricity production growth, the Company expects to increase energy production by 5% in 2025.”
What are the major trends in the oil and gas markets in early 2025?
Jean-Pierre Sbraire: At the beginning of 2025, Brent prices remain volatile at between $70/b and $80/b, supported by the willingness of OPEC+ countries to balance oil markets that are facing strong supply growth from non-OPEC countries (U.S., Guyana and Brazil). According to the IEA, global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.1 Mb/d in 2025, up from a 0.8 Mb/d increase in 2024.
European gas prices increased at the end of 2024 and forward markets currently expect prices to be above $13/Mbtu in the first-quarter of 2025, supported by high winter consumption and rapid inventory declines in Europe in the context of the interruption of Russian imports via Ukraine. Gas markets should remain in tension due to very limited expected capacity additions related to delays of some projects. TotalEnergies expects more than 40 Mt of LNG sales in 2025. Given the evolution of oil and gas prices in recent months and the lag effect on price formulas, TotalEnergies expects its average LNG selling price will be above $10/Mbtu in the first quarter 2025.
What are the Company’s energy production forecasts?
J-P. S. / In 2025, TotalEnergies expects its hydrocarbon production to grow by more than 3%, benefiting from the ramp-up of 2024 start-ups and production start-ups, notably Ballymore in the Gulf of Mexico and Mero-4 in Brazil.
First-quarter hydrocarbon production is expected to be between 2.5 and 2.55 Mboe/d thanks to the ramp-up of 2024 start-ups and the closing of the acquisitions of SapuraOMV in Malaysia and of the interests in the Eagle Ford shale gas play in fourth-quarter 2024.
The Integrated Power segment is expected to expand in 2025 supported by electricity production growth greater than 20% to reach an annual net electricity generation of more than 50 TWh. Cash flow before working capital is expected to total between $2.5 billion and $3 billion in 2025.
By combining hydrocarbon and electricity production growth, the Company expects to increase energy production by 5% in 2025. Integrated Power production will represent 10% of hydrocarbon production.
And regarding investments?
J-P. S. / For 2025, TotalEnergies expects net investments of $17 billion to $17.5 billion, of which $4.5 billion in low-carbon energies, mostly Integrated Power. Organic investments should amount to some $17 billion, focused on core growth projects to achieve 2030 production targets, down from the $18 billion guidance presented in the Strategy & Outlook in October 2024.