Editorial
“Thanks to the Company’s disciplined investment policy, as well as anticipated cash flow growth, the Board of Directors has reaffirmed the priority given to the dividend and its growth through cycles.”
Fellow Shareholders,
At the latest Investors’ Day, held in New York on September 29, I reviewed TotalEnergies’ strategy and outlook and spoke with you about how your Company is resolutely pursuing the implementation of its balanced and profitable transition strategy anchored on two pillars: Oil & Gas, mainly LNG, and Integrated Power. TotalEnergies plans to increase energy production (oil, gas and electricity) by ~4% per year through 2030 while reducing emissions from its operations (-50% on Oil & Gas Scope 1+2* in 2030 compared with 2015, and -80% on methane emissions in 2030 compared with 2020).
For the first pillar, Oil & Gas, our average annual growth will be around 3% between 2024 and 2030 thanks to the start-up of our extensive project portfolio, 95% of 2030 production being either running or under development. In 2025 and 2026, this growth will exceed 3% per year, benefiting from the start-up of several high-margin oil projects - in offshore US, Brazil and Iraq, and major gas projects such as Jerun in Malaysia. Integrated LNG sales are expected to grow 50% by 2030, driven by some of the world’s most competitive LNG projects, including Rio Grande LNG in the United States, North Field East/ South in Qatar, and Mozambique LNG. In addition, to complete its Integrated Power business model, the Company will develop gas-to-power integration, mainly in Europe and the United States.
For the second pillar, Integrated Power, TotalEnergies plans to increase electricity production by approximately 20% a year through 2030, resulting in 100 to 120 TWh/y of electricity production, of which 70% renewable and 30% flexible gas (CCGTs). Investments in these segments will be focused on the main deregulated markets (United States, Europe and Brazil) in which TotalEnergies implements its integrated model.
In addition, on November 17, TotalEnergies signed a major agreement with EPH for €5.1 billion (transaction in shares) for the acquisition of 50% of its flexible power generation platform in Europe (over 14 GW of flexible generation in operation or under construction, representing net annual production of 15 TWh, increasing to 20 TWh in 2030, and a pipeline of 5 GW under development). This transaction is fully consistent with the Company’s Integrated Power strategy and will strengthen its position in European electricity markets by enhancing the complementary fit between intermittent renewable power generation and flexible power generation (gas-fired power plants, batteries). It will allow the Company to expand its power trading activities across Europe and develop its Clean Firm Power offering to its customers. This will position the Company as a key player to meet Europe’s growing data center demand.
Due to this accelerated inorganic growth in the Integrated Power segment, the Company is lowering its annual net Capex guidance by $1 billion per year to $14-16 billion per year for 2026-2030, of which $2-3 billion is for Integrated Power, while maintaining its 2030 electricity generation target of 100-120 TWh.
Thanks to this disciplined investment policy, as well as the Company’s anticipated cash flow growth, the Board of Directors has reaffirmed the priority given to the dividend and its growth through cycles. At its September 24 meeting, the Board of Directors also authorized $1.5 billion of share buybacks in fourth-quarter 2025, resulting in $7.5 billion of share buybacks for the full year 2025. In addition, the Board approved 2026 share buyback guidance of between $0.75 billion and $1.5 billion per quarter for a Brent price between $60 and $70/b and an exchange rate of around 1.20 $/€. This should lead to a payout of around 50% at $70/b in 2026.
Thank you once again for your trust and loyalty. I hope you enjoy this new issue of the Shareholders’ Newsletter.
Patrick Pouyanné