Analysis & Outlook
“In the first quarter, the Company reported adjusted net income of $5.4 billion and cash flow from operations of $8.6 billion, demonstrating its ability to capture rising prices, supported by an integrated portfolio of high-performing and diversified businesses across oil, gas and electricity.”
What are you seeing in the markets amid the conflict in the Middle East?
Jean-Pierre Sbraire / Oil prices remain around $100 per barrel and continue to be highly volatile. They are expected to stay at elevated levels in the coming months, as markets factor in the time required to bring Middle Eastern production facilities back online once the crisis subsides.
At the same time, the conflict’s impact on global hydrocarbon inventories means that the surplus scenario anticipated for 2026 at the start of the year is no longer considered likely.
European gas prices for the second quarter are also high on forward markets, at around $14–15/MBtu. This reflects ongoing inventory rebuilding in Europe, where end-of-winter levels (25%) are the lowest in five years. Competition between LNG demand in Europe to replenish stocks and demand from Asia ahead of the summer season is expected to support prices in the coming months.
What is the impact for TotalEnergies?
J-P. S. / In the first quarter, TotalEnergies demonstrated its ability to capture rising prices, supported by its integrated and diversified portfolio across oil, gas and electricity. Backed by 4% year-on-year organic production growth – offsetting the impact of the Middle East conflict on output – the Company reported adjusted net income of $5.4 billion and cash flow from operations of $8.6 billion.
At the end of April, production shut-ins in Qatar, Iraq and offshore in the United Arab Emirates accounted for around 15% of the Company’s total output.
Excluding the impact of the conflict, second-quarter production is expected to remain in line with first-quarter trends, with growth of around 4% year-on-year.
Refinery utilization rates are expected to range between 80% and 85% in the second quarter. This reflects both reduced capacity at the Satorp refinery in Saudi Arabia—following incidents on April 7–8 that damaged one of its two processing trains—and the planned two-month major turnaround at the Donges refinery in France.
What are the prospects for the Integrated Power business?
J-P. S. / TotalEnergies continues to expand its renewable portfolio, with 8 GW brought on stream over the past twelve months.
The completion of the transaction with EPH at the end of April further accelerates the Company’s gas-to-power integration strategy in Europe and marks a key step for the Integrated Power business toward its objective of generating positive free cash flow by 2027.
